Costa had been considered the frontrunner to become the next EU Council president, following his three consecutive terms at the helm of the Portuguese government. But plenty has changed since then.

“The central question of this election revolves around whether Portuguese citizens will opt for change or prefer to maintain the status quo by supporting the socialists and avoiding uncertainties,” Marco Lisi, a researcher at the Nova University of Lisbon, told EUobserver.

Since 2022, there has been an erosion of support for the government and the Socialist Party (PS), a strengthening of the radical right, and a deterioration in key services for people’s quality of life, such as health, education and housing.

“Despite significant improvements in the economic landscape, the main concern for Portuguese citizens remains the rising cost of living experienced over the last two years,” Sofía Serra Silva, a junior researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon (ICS), told EUobserver.

Recent polls predict a victory for the AD [conservative coalition including the centre-right PSD], which is expected to win 32.6 percent of the vote, closely followed by the Socialist Party (27.9 percent).

But what’s new in these Portuguese elections is the rise of the far-right, mirroring that in other EU countries in the past few years.

The nationalist-conservative Chega! [Enough!] party (of the European Parliament’s ID group) barely garnered 1.3 percent of the Portuguese vote in 2019, and is now expected to become the third force in parliament, with almost 17 percent of the vote.

“The strong presence on social networks, the charisma of its leader (André Ventura) and the use of simple, objective and direct slogans have acted as catalysts for support for the party,” PhD Bruno Ferreira Costa, from the university of Beira Interior, argued.

An analysis by the University of Lisbon found that the party has attracted a rightwing electorate previously unrepresented.

“Chega’s support is drawn particularly from younger, less-educated men who feel disproportionately dissatisfied with the political system,” says Serra Silva.

And in the wake of various corruption scandals during the eight years of socialist party rule, Chega has plumped for an ‘anti-corruption’ platform.

“Many people are concerned about it, and Chega is really striking hard on these issues, making promises to end corruption,” Pedro Martins, former governor and professor at the Nova School of Business and Economics, told EUobserver in an interview.

Centre-right leader Luís Montenegro of the PSD (EPP) has publicly ruled out a coalition with the Chega party — but internal divisions suggest his position would not be enough to contain a ruling alliance.

“From an ideological and moral perspective, I think it makes sense [for the PSD] to keep them [Chega] away in order to appeal to voters who may be undecided to vote for the rightwing party,” Martins argued.

Socialist candidate Pedro Nuno Santos also insisted that his party would not oppose a centre-right minority government led by Montenegro, if the PS itself did not win the election.

Final opinion polls are predicting a very fragmented and polarised result, which could mean another round of elections — although analysts do not expect this is the most plausible scenario.

“I think the most likely scenario is that there will be stability in the Portuguese government for at least two years, assuming the rightwing party wins, but without a full majority,” says Martins.

And although some studies indicate a widespread desire for change among the electorate, “the number of undecided voters (between 15 and 20 percent) and the number of voters who admit to changing their vote (15 percent) could condition the outcome of the election,” concluded Ferreira.