Home European News Trump is rolling. But here are the 4 potholes still ahead.

Trump is rolling. But here are the 4 potholes still ahead.

0
Trump is rolling. But here are the 4 potholes still ahead.

Donald Trump is marching into the general election in an enviable political position.

The former president is leading President Joe Biden in most polls. He has shown a potential to broaden his coalition with Black and Hispanic voters. And he doesn’t face the same type of scrutiny about his age that the president confronts on a regular basis.

After sweeping through almost every Super Tuesday Republican contest on Tuesday night, Trump exhibited the type of swagger befitting a candidate with a real shot of winning the White House in eight months time.

“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason,” Trump said on stage at Mar-a-lago, flanked by American flags. “An amazing night and an amazing day.”

The former president made no mention of his lone Republican rival, Nikki Haley, during his speech and instead talked about the economy, border and even party unity.

“I’ve been saying lately, success will bring unity to the country,” Trump said. “November 5th will go down as the single most important day in the history of our country.”

But for all the outward confidence, Trump still faces significant hurdles ahead, ones that could gradually — or perhaps even quickly — turn his current advantages into real deficits. Here are four major landmines that await him.

Money

If Biden has one real reason to be optimistic heading into the general election, it’s because he holds a cash advantage over Trump. He’s heading in the right direction when it comes to fundraising — and the former president is not.

Trump’s conglomerate of political groups collectively spent more than they raised in 2023, blowing through tens of millions of dollars on legal bills rather than accumulating cash in an off year. The former president still had $30 million in his campaign account as of Jan. 31, according to his most recent report with the Federal Election Commission. But that is far less than the $92.6 million he had at this time in 2020 and puts him at a considerable disadvantage compared to Biden, who had $56 million in his campaign account.

Trump remains a strong fundraiser. His campaign rakes in cash from a large base of recurring donors, and that steady flow was punctuated by massive hauls last year when he was indicted and had his mug shot taken. But there are also some warning signs for the likely GOP nominee: Nikki Haley’s longshot campaign was bringing in more new donors than Trump’s fundraising committee apparatus by the end of last year. And Trump’s joint fundraising committee also spent $48 million on overhead last year, a high expense rate that signals how aggressive he has had to be in donor outreach.

Trump spent part of his Tuesday meeting with donors at his Mar-a-Lago club, and according to advisers, he has taken a hands-on approach to donor outreach by making personal calls and holding meetings with his financial backers.

Trump’s campaign will get some help when it can start coordinating with the Republican National Committee on fundraising. On Friday, the RNC will elect a new leader to replace Ronna McDaniel, whom Trump and his campaign blamed for anemic fundraising and for putting too much importance on primary debates. Michael Whatley, the chair of the North Carolina GOP, is expected to become chair. Joined by Lara Trump, Trump’s daughter-in-law, as co-chair, and Chris LaCivita, Trump’s senior adviser to the campaign, as chief operating officer, they are expected by Trump’s campaign to build a cohesive national network and fundraising apparatus to support Trump’s general election bid.

“Fundraising continues to pick up as patriotic donors are excited to assist in the effort to retire Joe Biden. The polling in recent days shows the immense challenges ahead for Joe Biden and his campaign. Voters are unhappy with the direction of the country and Joe Biden’s management of the economy and the border. Help is on the way,” said Alex Pfeiffer, communications director for MAGA Inc.

Legal

Trump’s calendar in his criminal cases is in disarray, creating logistical challenges for his campaign. The New York hush-money criminal case involving the porn star Stormy Daniels and the Playboy model Karen McDougal kicks off at the end of the month, and Trump will be required to attend court four days per week, limiting the amount of time he will be on the trail.

Depending on how other cases shape up, Trump could end up spending considerable more time in courtrooms following the GOP convention in July. But if other cases continue to be delayed — something he’s benefited from as of late — Trump may not spend a single day torn between the campaign and his trials. It will be weeks or months before there is any clarity.

First, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon — a Trump appointee — must decide when to reschedule his federal criminal trial in Florida. Special counsel Jack Smith has asked for the trial to start on July 8, while Trump has asked to delay it into 2025 or, if she won’t go that far, to schedule it in mid-August. Trump’s criminal case in Washington, D.C., is on hold while the Supreme Court considers his claim presidential immunity from the charges, and the justices’ decision could derail the case altogether or push it deep into the fall. And Trump’s criminal case in Georgia — a lengthy multi-defendant racketeering case related to his bid to subvert the 2020 election — has not yet been scheduled, though it appears likely to slip into next year.

Donald Trump awaits the start of a hearing in New York City Criminal Court.
Donald Trump awaits the start of a hearing in New York City Criminal Court, on Feb. 15, 2024. | Pool photo by Jefferson Siegel

So while Trump may avert this pitfall, he could also end up in a situation where the public attention is being centered on his legal problems right when voters traditionally turn into the campaign.

Abortion

Trump will continue to face pressure to outline his position on abortion, which has become kryptonite for Republicans in recent elections. The former president has so far avoided articulating in public whether or not he supports a national abortion ban, something that Democrats have vowed to campaign against in the upcoming election.

During a recent interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Trump said he was still “undecided” on a national abortion ban, but he was hearing more about “15 weeks.”

“The number 15 is mentioned. I haven’t agreed to any number; I’m going to see. We want to take an issue that was very polarizing and get it settled and solved so everybody can be happy,” Trump told Fox News.

Trump has claimed credit for the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion decision, while also criticizing Republicans for taking extreme positions on the abortion. Trump has said he supports exceptions for abortion in the case of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is at risk.

But his ability to avoid getting pinned down — while, perhaps, deft — could also mean that he continues to get asked about it until he formulates an actual position. The Biden campaign has made clear they’re going to attack him either way, laying blame for the end of the constitutional right to abortion squarely at his feet.

Party unity

After a bruising primary, Trump could face challenges in wooing the suburbanite voters who backed Haley. Trump himself has called for party unity, although he has continued to attack Haley for staying in the race. And there are concerns, backed by polling data, that her supporters might choose to stay home rather than show up and support Trump in the general election.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley interacts with guests after speaking at a campaign event.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley interacts with guests after speaking at a campaign event in Georgetown, South Carolina on Feb. 22, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

Still, the Republican party has largely closed ranks behind Trump. Last week, one of the last Trump holdouts in the Senate, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the second-highest ranking Republican, endorsed Trump, and Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s team has been in touch with the Trump campaign about a potential endorsement.

Trump’s campaign maintains the former president holds advantages on key election issues, like immigration and the economy, that will ultimately persuade reluctant Republican voters to support his candidacy. The campaign also points to the backlash Biden has faced from progressive voters over his response to the Israeli incursion into Gaza and the lack of enthusiasm he faces from some voters, such as African Americans, as evidence that the Democratic Party is more fractured than Republicans.

This week Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., is running radio ads targeting Black voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Jessica Piper and Kyle Cheney contributed to this report.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here