Since Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to the bloody Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, Yemeni Houthis – who follow Zaydism, a branch of Shia Islam – have ramped up shipping disruptions on the southern route to the Suez Canal: the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a 193km-long and 32km-wide chokepoint between the Arabian peninsula and the Horn of Africa. These rebels have launched missiles or explosive-laden drones at freighters and tankers, and have sometimes hijacked them via helicopter. ‘It fulfils our religious, moral and humanitarian duty to support those wronged in Palestine and Gaza,’ said Yahya Sarre, a Houthi spokesperson.

Between 19 November and mid-February, there were over 30 such attacks. Several shipping companies independently decided in mid-December to reroute their fleets, requiring them to sail around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This has upended international trade. According to the Kiel Institute, just 200,000 shipping containers transited the Red Sea in December 2023, versus half a million in November.

The strait is a critical crossroads for both global goods (carrying 12% of international trade and 30% of all container traffic) and hydrocarbons, especially oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). An average of 4-8% of global LNG freight transits the Suez Canal annually, and eight million barrels of oil pass through the Red Sea each day. As such a key link in global commerce, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is also its Achilles heel.

In the early 2000s, private security was placed on commercial ships as a stopgap measure against terrorists and pirates in the Gulf of Aden (between Yemen and Somalia). Eventually, in 2008, UN Security Council resolution 1816 paved the way for states to enter and use Somalia’s territorial waters to counter piracy. Late that year Operation Atalanta, a European initiative to help with sea and air surveillance of the Arabian Gulf from Djibouti, was set up, albeit on a shoestring budget. ‘There are currently only two (…)

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