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Singapore Keeps Monetary Policy Tight as Price Risks Linger

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Singapore Keeps Monetary Policy Tight as Price Risks Linger

Singapore’s central bank kept its monetary policy settings unchanged for a fourth straight time on still-elevated price pressures and with the economy’s recovery seen staying the course.

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(Bloomberg) — Singapore’s central bank kept its monetary policy settings unchanged for a fourth straight time on still-elevated price pressures and with the economy’s recovery seen staying the course.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the exchange rate as its main policy tool rather than interest rates, maintained the slope, width, and center of the currency band as expected by all 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey. That will keep the local dollar on an appreciating path to blunt imported inflation.

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Friday’s announcement, which came alongside first-quarter data that showed the city-state’s growth slowed more than expected, extends the MAS’s pause after five rounds of tightening between October 2021 and 2022. The decision follows similar moves by central banks in the Philippines, Thailand, New Zealand and Canada this week.

Since the MAS’s last decision in January, underlying inflation quickened. In February the core gauge – which excludes costs of accommodation and private road transport – accelerated to 3.6%, faster than the forecast 3.4% gain. Figures for March are due on April 23.

“MAS Core Inflation is likely to remain elevated in the earlier part of the year,” the central bank said in a statement Friday, adding that it expects price gains to moderate through the fourth quarter, before falling further in 2025. “Accordingly, current monetary policy settings remain appropriate.”

The MAS expects both core and headline inflation to come in between 2.5%-3.5% this year, while retaining the growth forecast for the full year at between 1%-3%.

The central bank said prospects for the Singapore economy should improve over the course of the year, supported by a recovery in the manufacturing and financial sectors and anticipated easing in global interest rates.

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“The one addition to today’s statement compared to January was the mention that ‘the prevailing rate of appreciation of the policy band is needed’ to keep a restraining effect on imported inflation,” said Khoon Goh, head of research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “This suggests there is no intention to easing policy anytime soon.

The MAS guides the local dollar against a basket of its major trading partners and adjusts the pace of its appreciation or depreciation by changing the slope, width and center of the currency band. It doesn’t disclose details of the basket, the band nor the pace of appreciation or depreciation.

“It’s too premature to expect an easing,” said Selena Ling, chief economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd., especially when MAS has maintained its view that core CPI will step down the fourth quarter and fall further in 2025. “Major central banks are also slightly hesitating to do likewise since recent inflation prints have been more buoyant especially with the uptick in crude oil prices.”

Ling sees an “easing window” in the second half of this year but “if core CPI shows signs of subsiding earlier and/or more materially than anticipated, then July or October could be fair game.”

—With assistance from Tomoko Sato, Kevin Varley, Aradhana Aravindan, Natalie Choy and Nurin Sofia.

(Updates with details on GDP data and economist comments.)

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