At some point in a political leader’s mandate, bribing people with their own money to do the stuff you should have been doing mandates ago doesn’t work.
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At this rate, all Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has left to do on April 16 is rise in the House of Commons, point to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and say “ditto.” That’s how quickly the prime minister is pulling rabbits out of her (supposed) budget-day hat.
There’s been the $15 billion top-up to the Apartment Loan Construction Program; the $6 billion for infrastructure related to housing; another $1.5 billion for the rental protection fund; and a $400 million boost for the Housing Accelerator Fund. All announced before budget day.
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It’s easy to figure out why Trudeau is shoving dollars out the door on housing. When a report from RBC, Canada’s biggest bank and the owner of a supermax tanker’s-worth of mortgage debt, observes that a household with an average income now needs to spend 63.5 per cent of that income to cover the cost of owning an average home, things are clearly FUBAR and in need of remedy.
Even if Trudeau could get the premiers on board on housing — a big if, given how he’s treated the federation over his terms in office — it’s not a quick enough fix. It’s all well and good to start running away from shore when the tsunami is in sight; but it’s better to have built the proper defences in the first place. This is the Canadian story on housing. It might not all be Trudeau’s fault, but the window for blaming the other guys has long since passed. You might not like Stephen Harper, but he’s not the reason CMHC said housing starts are going to be down in 2024.
How bad is the internal polling? Well, this week Justin Pierre James Trudeau, son of Pierre, opened his mouth to say that immigration to Canada has “grown at a rate far beyond what Canada has been able to absorb.” He then added “temporary immigration has caused so much pressure in our communities.” Justin Trudeau! As one London wag noted to me, it’s as if Boris Johnson had called a press conference to explore returning to the European Union.
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For connoisseurs of panic, Trudeau is now resorting to that bog-standard of all tactics, i.e. spend. Then spend some more. Then spend even more again. Only trouble is, Canada’s finances are already poor and its productivity and GDP growth are now decidedly mid-table. Spending more won’t save Canada any more than it will save Trudeau. All he needs to do is ask former Liberal Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne. Emphasis on “former.”
Wynne was once Trudeau, at the tail end of a fatal collection of policy errors and at the wrong end of a long stretch in government. And while some of the scandals were her Liberal predecessor’s, the terminal decisions were all hers. At some point, bribing people with their own money to do the stuff you should have been doing mandates ago won’t placate the voters. Trudeau doesn’t even have anyone else to blame; he’s been the whole Liberal ballgame. Chickens, meet your roost.
As Trudeau surveys the scene, everything looks like treacle. The carbon tax hike on April 1 will go down badly. The foreign interference inquiry keeps chucking up unhelpful facts, such as the fact foreign students — i.e. some of the ones Trudeau says are putting “pressure” on communities — can pick Canadian parliamentary candidates. Patients in all provinces are waiting longer for key procedures than before the COVID-19 pandemic. There is no relief in sight. On any front.
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These dark clouds go a long way to explaining why Trudeau is so surly these days. In response to an entirely serious and fair question about former Conservative leader’s Erin O’Toole’s concerns over foreign interference in nine ridings in the 2021 federal election, Trudeau replied: “I can understand where someone who lost an election is trying to look for reasons other than themselves for why they lost an election.”
This, friends, is called “projection.” Some brave Liberal needs to remind the boss that all political careers end in failure. Even his. Even if he spends all of the money.
Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
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