“We are striving to reduce irregular migration and strengthen legal immigration which supports the labour market,” said Joachim Stamp, Germany’s special envoy for migration treaties. “We are also preparing for talks with West African and Middle Eastern countries.”

In 2023, almost one-in-four asylum applications were rejected.

Local elections will take place later this year in the states of Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony. The anti-migration, nationalist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads the polls in each of these former east German states, creating pressure on the coalition government to tighten migration control. The AfD is also polling at around 19 percent nationally.

The agreements accelerate the removal of individuals from Germany to their origin countries following unsuccessful asylum claims. Appeals have no suspensive effect, meaning those awaiting a verdict can still be deported. Origin countries are supposedly obliged to rapidly process returned nationals. Since 2021, Morocco has refused to accept nationals due to strained relations with Germany.

In exchange, Germany commits to increasing access to its job market for skilled workers — especially in sectors experiencing acute labour shortages. Student visas, traineeships and research exchange programmes are also part of the package.

“Normalising immigration to Germany with safe, legal routes is a positive development,” Karl Kopp, director at Frankfurt-based NGO PRO ASYL, told EUobserver. “But migration agreements in the EU over the past two decades — and we fear in the future — focus on deterrence.”

Asylum seekers in Germany are overwhelmingly fleeing violence.

Last year, almost 330,000 people claimed asylum in Germany — with almost half coming from Syria and Afghanistan. Asylum applications from both countries have a high success rate. However, FDP and CDU ministers in the Bundestag have called for deportations to Afghanistan to resume, since removals were ceased in 2021.

More than one million Ukrainian refugees also currently reside in Germany.

“The majority of those who have sought asylum in Germany over recent years have received protection status,” Kopp further explains. International law enshrines the right to non-refoulement.

Asylum applications from Georgian nationals amounted to 8,414 in 2023, accounting for less than three percent of total applications. However, nearly all applications were rejected based on Georgia having a low protection status.

Neither Moldova, recently registered as a safe origin country, nor Morocco belong to the top ten origin countries.

‘Only safe countries’

Georgia was only officially recognised by Germany as a “safe origin country” in December. Origin countries listed as safe are based on the assumption that nationals face no state persecution and effective democratic systems are in place.

Professor Marc Helbling from the University of Mannheim told EUobserver it is “important that Germany only sends migrants back to safe countries of origin. The agreements with Georgia and Moldova have already been criticised, as some minorities are discriminated against and Russian influence is also growing in both countries.”

One-fifth of Georgia’s territory has been annexed and under de facto Russian occupation since 2008. In fact, last year, Belgium removed Georgia from its list of safe-origin countries.

Meanwhile, Germany does not recognise Morocco as a safe country of origin — raising questions over the legitimacy of the agreement.

NGOs point to crackdowns on civil freedoms and the harsh criminalisation of dissent in Morocco — with Human Rights Watch reporting an “ecosystem of repression” which has led to the imprisonment of journalists, activists and opposition lawyers.

In 2022, Moroccan and Spanish authorities violently prevented asylum seekers from crossing into Melilla, Spain. At least 23 people died as a result, with UN experts reporting 37. As recently as last month, Moroccan authorities imprisoned over 1,000 people attempting to cross into Europe.

“Governments often negotiate at state level without considering what it means for the people involved” explained Dr Marcus Engler from the German Centre for Integration and Migration to EUobserver.

Italy’s far-right government has reached an agreement with Albania for it to host an alleged 36,000 asylum seekers. The UK-Rwanda scheme aims to deport arrivals in Britain to the east African country — where they will remain if applications are successful.

Denmark held similar discussions with Rwanda before pulling out, prioritising an EU-wide approach.

Nancy Fraser, Germany’s interior minister, has expressed doubts about the UK’s plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. However, Der Spiegel reports that Faser is exploring the possibility of outsourcing asylum procedures to transit and third countries.

“A serious concern is that there is no clear, objective threshold for a country to be considered safe,” says Engler. “In any event, it should not be up to governments to self-declare what constitutes a safe country of origin. This has to be developed by independent bodies working under a transparent process.”