Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the White House – but if they ditched Biden the Democrats would beat the former President, a new poll has found.

Analysis by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, shared with The Mail on Sunday, puts 81-year-old Biden, who is running for re-election as President in November, on 40 per cent among US voters, the same as Trump.

But when the voters are offered a choice between Trump, 77, the frontrunner to be his Republican challenger, and ‘a Democrat other than Joe Biden’, the notional candidate leads by six points. Biden would beat Nikki Haley, Trump’s last-remaining rival for the Republican nomination, by 11 points.

Even though the two men are tied in the 10,000-sample poll, the American electorate thinks the momentum is with Trump: just 28 per cent think that Biden will win re-election, compared with 38 per cent who expect Trump to return to the White House.

The results have been released amid growing concerns about the mental capacity of President Biden, who is the oldest person ever to occupy the Oval Office. Earlier this month, Special Counsel Robert Hur caused alarm when he said in his report on Biden’s handling of classified documents that Biden was a ‘well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory’.

The concerns are reflected in the President’s approval ratings: only 37 per cent of US voters approve of his handling of the Presidency, compared with 58 per cent who disapprove – which includes a quarter of those who voted for him in 2020. Young voters are particularly disenchanted, with 64 per cent of the 18-24 bracket disapproving.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the White House – but if they ditched Biden the Democrats would beat the former President, a new poll has found

Even though the two men are tied in the 10,000-sample poll, the American electorate thinks the momentum is with Trump: just 28 per cent think that Biden will win re-election, compared with 38 per cent who expect Trump to return to the White House

Lord Ashcroft’s focus groups found that many of Biden’s supporters in 2020 had backed him only as the means of removing Trump. One typical response was: ‘I personally wish the Democratic Party had another viable option.’ Another said: ‘I don’t think he has a freaking clue what’s going on… Every time he speaks I get so nervous because I don’t know what’s going to come out.’

The Biden/Trump battle is polarising the country along lines of race, gender and demography: Trump leads among men, the under-35s, white voters and high-school dropouts, and on issues such as immigration, defence, the economy, taxes, crime and the cost of living; Biden leads among women, the over-65s, black voters and degree-holders on healthcare and the environment.

Pessimism hangs over the race: two-thirds of voters think that America is headed in the wrong direction, which rises to 86 per cent among Trump supporters.

Trump – the first former President in US history to face criminal indictments – is facing a total of 91 charges across four separate cases, including payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and allegations that he illegally conspired to overturn his 2020 election defeat.

Lord Ashcroft’s research found voters as a whole were twice as likely to say the charges against Trump were probably true and not politically motivated – 40 per cent compared to the 20 per cent who say they were politically motivated and probably untrue.

One Trump supporter in a focus group said: ‘They are petrified he’s going to get another win. And we know they play dirty. They’re trying to come up with something to get him where he can’t run.’ Another participant said: ‘I think the indictments were warranted based on what he did, but was it politically motivated? Of course it was. That’s the nature of the country we live in. It’s Republican against Democrat.’ Lord Ashcroft writes: ‘If the election were on Tuesday, then you would have to fancy Trump’s chances. But with nine months to go, there is more than enough time for Biden to regain the initiative.

‘If it feels like 2016 again [when Trump won], that doesn’t mean the same result is inevitable. For many voters wondering if they can bring themselves to vote for Biden again, 2016 will serve as a cautionary tale.’

10,192 US adults were interviewed online January 17 to 28. Results weighted to be representative of all adults. Full data at LordAshcroftPolls.com.