The President of the United States, Joe Biden, has won the Democratic primaries in Michigan and Donald Trump, the Republican ones. It was foreseeable, given it is a race in which the former was running without real opposition and the latter has a lead of dozens of points in the polls. But the predictable outcome doesn’t mean that there can’t be surprises in the final tally. The great unknown is what will be the percentage of dissident votes in a key swing state for the electoral aspirations of the two contenders in next November’s presidential elections.
On the Republican side, the key will be how many ballots bear the name of Trump’s only remaining rival, Nikki Haley. On the Democratic side, how many voters in a state with a significant Arab population will have followed the recommendations of a protest campaign against the White House’s pro-Israel policy and chosen the “Uncommitted” option, equivalent to a blank ballot, to demand a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
Polling stations closed at 8 p.m. after twelve hours open. In Dearborn, a city on the outskirts of Detroit where 55% of the population is of North African or Middle Eastern origin, and which has become the heart of the “Listen to Michigan” protest campaign, what was a mere trickle of people early in the morning picked up pace in the afternoon. More than a million people had voted early, in a state of ten million people.
Outside of the McDonald electoral college, the mayor of Dearborn, Abdullah Hammoud, stated he wanted to show that his constituency is an important voting block that must be counted on. Hammoud, of Lebanese origin, is one of dozens of Democratic officials and politicians who have expressed support for the campaign for the “Uncommitted” vote to punish Biden. Other groups from the more progressive Democratic wing also backed that option.
“These are our family members, our friends, our ancestral villages, where our parents came from, that are being bombed each and every single day… We are using this opportunity as a means of sending a message that course correction needs to happen, or else he risks not only the presidency, but ultimately the American democracy with the reelection of president Trump,” he said to reporters. “For many members in the city of Dearborn, and across the state, people are using the word “betrayal”. We were promised a president to bring back decency, to lead with humanity, to lead with empathy as someone who has suffered loss, and we have found anything but.”
The U.S. president, who at the beginning of the war in Gaza was decidedly on the Israeli side, has gradually modulated his position, although he maintains his resistance to a permanent ceasefire and continues to send arms to Israel. In recent weeks he has declared that the Israeli government “has gone too far” in its war in the Strip, where some 30,000 Palestinians have been killed, has sanctioned Jewish settlers who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank and has warned against an offensive in Rafah, the final remaining Gazan city to be attacked. On Monday, he expressed his hope of closing within a week a temporary truce that could serve as a first step towards a permanent ceasefire.
A gesture that Dearborn voters declared would not change their positions. “Too little, too late,” was the opinion of Khalid Turaani, of the Michigan Task Force of Palestine and one of the organizers of the “Abandon Biden” movement, which calls for the defeat of the U.S. president in next November’s elections. Mayor Hammoud was also skeptical: “I find it strange that you’re eating ice cream at a parlor and that is the moment that you talk about a ceasfire coming forward. With that said, I also look at Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements, where he has just presented his War Cabinet a plan to invade Rafah in the upcoming holiest month of Ramadan.”
Michigan is key to the aspirations of both the Democrat and the Republican. Trump won this state in 2016 by just over 10,000 votes. Biden snatched it from him in 2020 by 150,000 ballots. On top of this, the state has a population of 300,000 residents of Arab origin, which four years ago leaned overwhelmingly (64%) in favor of the current president.
“Four years ago I voted for Biden. This time I’m voting for Trump,” Emad Said, 48, an unemployed man, said outside his polling station in Dearborn. His motivation, he claimed, was not solely the events in Gaza. “Crime has increased, a lot of money is being sent to Ukraine and there is no money here… America first,” he said, repeating Trump’s famous slogan.
A percentage above 10% of the total in “Uncommitted” votes would be an important warning for Biden in a state that, in addition to supporting him in 2020, has a Democratic majority in its local parliament and in the state governorship. The president has received the support of the UAW, the influential auto workers’ union, which carries great political weight in a state that accounts for 20% of the nation’s vehicle production.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, co-chair of Biden’s campaign, has warned that a punishment vote now against the president could translate into a win for Trump in November. She has also indicated, speaking to MSNBC, that it’s going to be important for the Administration to continue to reach out to leaders and individuals in the Palestinian, Muslim, Arab American, as well as Jewish communities.
On the Republican side, how many votes Haley gets will provide an indication of the extent to which a portion of this electorate harbors doubts about a second term for Trump, who polls gave a 57 percentage point lead over his rival. However, the figure will be relative: only 30% of Michigan’s delegates for the Republican convention in Milwaukee will be awarded now. The remaining 70 will have to wait until Saturday, when the party will hold its state convention. Or, rather, conventions: internal divisions have created two factions that have called separate meetings in two different cities.
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